"Recent developments have been less than reassuring."
By R. Bruce Wright, CPCU
In the wake of the events of the past several years, with the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina being the most prominent, nearly all of us were transformed. The dramatic, horrific images of falling buildings and widespread floods that we saw commanded our attention and wrenched at our emotions. It is not too strong to say that these events changed our lives and our world views. One result of those changes was that most organizations re-examined many of their basic assumptions regarding their vulnerabilities to attack and to natural disasters. One example is that managers at utility systems across the country have given significant thought to catastrophe planning. Most, if not all, have completed formal catastrophe plans. If your organization is among them, congratulations!
But that doesn't mean disaster planning is finished and behind us. New threats will continue to face us, and require us to prepare to face them. One example on the horizon now is the possibility of an Avian Flu (Bird Flu) outbreak. While this is a real threat, I suspect few if any of us have devoted much time or attention to the potential consequences of an influenza pandemic, even though the impacts on the average person’s daily life could outstrip those that followed 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina. In fact, a flu pandemic could far surpass those events in its impact upon each of us directly, no matter where in the country we may live. The 9/11 and Katrina disasters, as bad as they were, struck in specific locations for a limited time. A flu pandemic would likely touch every corner of the country and effect quite literally the lives of tens of millions, even hundreds of millions, if it spreads across our country and the world.
Did that get your attention? I hope so. Is this scare mongering? I think not. Here’s why your system needs to be concerned.
- An influenza pandemic is likely to be world-wide in scope, with most, if not all regions of our country affected nearly simultaneously.
- Illnesses following an outbreak could last several weeks, or even longer if the outbreak is sustained through repeated waves of infection as is quite possible.
- External supply lines are likely to be disrupted or completely severed.
- Prolonged absenteeism will occur on an unprecedented level.
- Governments, including our own, may act to impose a wide variety of restrictions on travel, general commerce, critical services, and health care access.
You may be saying “Okay, I can see that a pandemic could be big, but I have been hearing about ‘bird flu’ for a couple of years now, and nothing major has happened. Why should I think it’s a real threat?” That’s a reasonable question. There are a couple of considerations that need to be factored into an answer. Both the size of a threat and the likelihood of its occurrence should factor in to the scope of our preventive actions. Here’s a simple way to think about it:
If you have a threat in group A, you will either devote all the energy you can to defeat it, or you will quickly find another business to go into! If you have a threat in group D you may be able to ignore it. But what about groups B & C? These are threats you are likely to take some actions to address. I think that everyone will agree that regardless of the likelihood of its occurrence, the results of an Avian Flu Pandemic are of major consequence and are not likely to be classed as a mere inconvenience. If so, we should begin now to take steps that will mitigate the impact, rather than wait until it's too late. While budget considerations will always influence the scope of your actions, there are still a wide range of things that can and should be brought forward for consideration. Only then can you decide which are most useful and affordable and which ones you will want to select for implementation.As you evaluate the threat from a possible flu pandemic, you might also want to bear in mind that recent developments have been less than reassuring.
- So far, all human cases have followed close exposure to infected birds. If the virus mutates to permit human-to-human transmission, outbreaks could develop rapidly and quickly spread worldwide.
- Major pharmaceutical companies have been working on vaccines to address the current strains of avian flu, those already transmitted from birds to humans. So far, there have been no vaccines found safe and effective by regulatory agencies. And, until human-to-human transmissible strains develop, no vaccines against them can be evaluated.
- Although no one in the USA has been infected yet, avian flu is getting closer to us. It is no longer confined to East Asia and was recently found in Great Britain.
- The absence of human-to-human transmission in the last flu season is not a guarantee for the next flu season.
- The next flu season is just three months off, October of 2007!
The sooner you start, the better prepared you can be should an outbreak occur. Right now is the time to begin to prepare contingency plans in the event of high absenteeism, supply chain interruptions and governmental interventions. At the very least you should have a task group (either in your system or in your association) assigned to identify and report on the most critical gaps, and to make recommendations on what steps you can take to address them. If the grid goes down, our ability to respond is likely limited, but there are many things short of that, things we can plan to address. From stocking disposable face masks to cross-training workers to identifying workers who could work from home in order to reduce exposures, there are many steps to consider that are both practical and affordable. Undoubtedly, your task group can easily come up with many more ideas in short order. Why not put the issue front and center now?
A Hugely Disasterous & Highly Likely |
B Hugely Disasterous & Very Unlikely |
C Minor Inconvenience & Highly Likely |
D Minor Inconvenience & Highly Unlikely |
If you have a threat in group A, you will either devote all the energy you can to defeat it, or you will quickly find another business to go into! If you have a threat in group D you may be able to ignore it. But what about groups B & C? These are threats you are likely to take some actions to address. I think that everyone will agree that regardless of the likelihood of its occurrence, the results of an Avian Flu Pandemic are of major consequence and are not likely to be classed as a mere inconvenience. If so, we should begin now to take steps that will mitigate the impact, rather than wait until it's too late. While budget considerations will always influence the scope of your actions, there are still a wide range of things that can and should be brought forward for consideration. Only then can you decide which are most useful and affordable and which ones you will want to select for implementation.
As you evaluate the threat from a possible flu pandemic, you might also want to bear in mind that recent developments have been less than reassuring.
- So far, all human cases have followed close exposure to infected birds. If the virus mutates to permit human-to-human transmission, outbreaks could develop rapidly and quickly spread worldwide.
- Major pharmaceutical companies have been working on vaccines to address the current strains of avian flu, those already transmitted from birds to humans. So far, there have been no vaccines found safe and effective by regulatory agencies. And, until human-to-human transmissible strains develop, no vaccines against them can be evaluated.
- Although no one in the USA has been infected yet, avian flu is getting closer to us. It is no longer confined to East Asia and was recently found in Great Britain.
- The absence of human-to-human transmission in the last flu season is not a guarantee for the next flu season.
- The next flu season is just three months off, October of 2007!
The sooner you start, the better prepared you can be should an outbreak occur. Right now is the time to begin to prepare contingency plans in the event of high absenteeism, supply chain interruptions and governmental interventions. At the very least you should have a task group (either in your system or in your association) assigned to identify and report on the most critical gaps, and to make recommendations on what steps you can take to address them. If the grid goes down, our ability to respond is likely limited, but there are many things short of that, things we can plan to address. From stocking disposable face masks to cross-training workers to identifying workers who could work from home in order to reduce exposures, there are many steps to consider that are both practical and affordable. Undoubtedly, your task group can easily come up with many more ideas in short order. Why not put the issue front and center now?